Alibaba Stock Jumps After Earnings Beat on Profit, Cloud Strength; Price War...

　　TMTPOST -- Alibaba shares surged Friday after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted quarterly profit that blew past Wall Street expectations, though revenue fell short as a bruising price war with domestic rivals continues to squeeze its core commerce business.

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For the fiscal first quarter ended June 30, Alibaba reported net income of $5.9 billion, well above the $3.7 billionexpected by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Revenue came in at $34.6 billion, slightly missing forecasts of about $35 billion, though still marking a modest 2% increase year over year.

　　The profit surge—up 76% from a year earlier—was fueled largely by gains from equity investments and the disposal of Turkish e-commerce company Trendyol. Those windfalls offset weaker operating income, which fell as Alibaba continues to pour money into aggressive promotions and new delivery initiatives.

　　Shares of Alibaba’s American depositary receipts jumped 8.9% to $130.20 in early New York trading, bouncing back after an initial dip on the results. The stock has gained more than 40% year to date, handily outpacing the MSCI China index’s 28% rise, as investors bet on its artificial-intelligence push and discounted valuation.

　　Alibaba’s stock may also have found support from a Wall Street Journal report Friday that said the company has developed a new, more versatile artificial-intelligence chip. The report comes as U.S. export restrictions and Chinese regulatory pressure have left Nvidia, the world’s top AI chipmaker, unable to sell its most advanced processors into the country.

　　Alibaba declined to comment on the report.

　　While experts caution that China remains far behind in producing chips that can rival Nvidia’s cutting-edge products, local players such as Huawei, Cambricon, Baidu and now Alibaba are racing to build alternatives. Nvidia’s downgraded H20 chip is currently the most advanced processor Washington allows the company to sell in China.

　　“Alibaba’s positioning as a leading GenAI and cloud infrastructure provider remains unchanged, underpinning a key pillar of our longer-term positive view,” Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang wrote in a recent note. Jiang rates Alibaba shares at Buy with a $176 price target, and suggests investors add on dips.

　　Though Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall continue to generate the bulk of sales, its smaller cloud computing unit has become increasingly important to the company’s growth story.

　　Cloud revenue rose 26% from a year earlier to $4.7 billion, topping analyst estimates of $4.5 billion. Executives said strength in AI-related demand and enterprise adoption helped fuel the increase.

　　“The strength of our core businesses gives us confidence and resources to make significant investments in quick commerce and AI initiatives,” Chief Financial Officer Toby Xu said in a statement.

　　Alibaba’s move into AI comes as Beijing has made self-sufficiency in advanced technologies a national priority. The company is positioning itself as a homegrown alternative to Nvidia for Chinese developers and enterprises building generative AI models.

　　Still, Alibaba’s bread-and-butter commerce operations remain under pressure. Revenue in its China commerce segment rose 10% to $19.6 billion, but operating profit dropped 21% to $5.4 billion as the company ramped up spending on “instant retail”—services that deliver goods within an hour of ordering.

　　That push is part of a broader price war gripping China’and Meituan have been slashing prices to win shoppers in a sluggish economy, forcing Alibaba to follow suit. The strategy has boosted transaction volumes but eaten into profitability.

　　The fallout has been visible across the industry. On Wednesday, Meituan reported an 89% plunge in quarterly adjusted net profit and warned of further steep losses as price competition intensifies.

　　“Competition is fierce, and we don’t see this easing in the near term,” said an analyst at a Hong Kong-based brokerage. “The big question is how sustainable Alibaba’s heavy investment in quick commerce will be, particularly if consumer demand doesn’t recover.”

　　Alibaba is also grappling with broader economic uncertainties. Weak consumer sentiment, falling property prices, and geopolitical tensions—including renewed trade tariff threats—have weighed on Chinese stocks and complicated the operating environment for big tech companies.

　　“Sentiment toward China remains fragile, and that’s capping valuations across the board,” said Benchmark’s Jiang. “But Alibaba is still one of the strongest names, with a combination of profitability, scale, and emerging growth in AI.”

　　For now, investors appear willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt. Alibaba has outperformed most large-cap Chinese tech peers this year, reflecting both its operational resilience and optimism over its pivot toward next-generation technologies.

　　Analysts say the next few quarters will test whether Alibaba can strike the right balance between defending its market share at home and investing in new areas like AI and cloud.

　　“The company has to walk a tightrope,” said the Hong Kong-based analyst. “ or Meituan. But if it keeps spending at this pace, profit growth from core operations could remain under pressure.”

　　With shares still trading at a discount to U.S. tech peers, many investors see room for upside if Alibaba can deliver consistent cloud growth and show tangible progress in AI. But the ongoing price war and weak Chinese consumer demand remain key risks.

　　“Alibaba remains a bellwether for the Chinese economy,” Jiang said. “Its results tell you both the challenges and opportunities in China right now—sluggish consumption on one hand, and massive potential in AI and cloud on the other.”